Will Divesting Old Navy Help The Gap?

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Khadeeja Safdar reports in the Wall Street Journal today that Gap Inc. is splitting into two publicly traded companies. Old Navy, the company's low-priced apparel chain, will become an independent firm, while another company will operate the other brands including Gap, Banana Republic, and Athleta.  The article notes that Old Navy has been the highest-performing brand in the portfolio for some time, and that it has surpassed the company's namesake brand in total revenue.   Gap Inc.'s stock rose 25% when the news broke.  Safdar reports on the comments offered by CEO Art Peck when announcing the breakup:  

“The other brands overlap each other but overlap Old Navy less,” Mr. Peck said on a conference call with analysts Thursday. He said separating the two would allow both to make quicker decisions and focus their investments. Mr. Peck has long said the brands have advantages over their competitors because of the parent company’s combined size.

I have doubts about whether this move alone will help the core Gap brand address its long-running troubles.  Gap's struggles extend far beyond the issues experienced by many brick-and-mortar chains as consumers flock to e-commerce options.  Gap has been "stuck in the middle" strategically for years.   What do I mean by that?  Well, Old Navy has clearly occupied a low cost position in the casual apparel market.  Banana Republic has established a more differentiated, premium-priced position with higher quality and more professional clothing.  What's the Gap brand position in the market? For years, they have floating somewhere between a low cost and differentiated position, unclear about who they are or want to be.  I've been writing about this strategic problem and discussing it with students for at least ten years.  See this past blog post, for instance. Today's Wall Street Journal article describes one aspect of this problem:

Some analysts have said that Old Navy’s rise has expedited the Gap brand’s demise. “When your prices are lower and it’s essentially the same merchandise, you’re going to cannibalize the sales at the higher-end brands,” said Sucharita Kodali, a retail analyst at Forrester. “There’s no differentiation.”

Will splitting off the Old Navy brand fix this strategic issue at the Gap brand?  I don't see a clear reason why it will, unless other substantial changes are made.  Simply splitting the company in two does not address the "stuck in the middle" problem.  The Gap is not just stuck in the middle of Old Navy and Banana Republic; they are stuck in the middle of a host of other strong, well-positioned low cost and differentiated apparel brands.  

Zara: Can Competitors Match Its Fast Fashion Model?

Patricia Kowsmann wrote a terrific article about Zara today.  Zara, as many of you know, is a highly successful Spanish apparel retailer.  In the article Kowsmann explains how quickly Zara can bring a new design to the retail floor, ready for customer purchase.  Here's an excerpt:  

A black, high-collar women’s wrap coat, fastened with a metal ring, was hung out for sale one recent morning at Zara’s flagship store in New York.  “Customers asked for hardware this season,” the manager said, holding out the ring. That kind of feedback, he added, can inspire a new style that reaches his store within weeks.  This coat took 25 days.

Recall that I blogged about The Gap's troubles several days ago.   The Gap finds itself in trouble for several reasons.  One cause of the company's problems is its inability to cope with fast fashion competitors such as Zara.  Kowsmann's article points out that many competitors, including the Gap, have emulated Zara's strategy of bringing manufacturing closer to its retail stores.  This supply chain strategy enables Zara to move more quickly and to adapt more easily to changing customer preferences.  However, Kowsmann explains that simply matching the location strategy that Zara has employed for its manufacturing facilities won't provide the winning formula for many of these retailers. Why?  Here's Kowsmann:

But experts say it would be hard for competitors to replicate the Inditex model without a more thorough overhaul of the way they design, manufacture and distribute their products.  The Spanish retailer’s rivals might move production closer to home, but they “just don’t have an organization set up to react quickly to what is trending,” said Liz Dunn, founder of Talmage Advisors, a retail consulting firm.

In short, Zara's competitive advantage does not come simply from its sourcing strategy.  It entails an entire integrated system of activities.  The New Yorker's James Surowiecki once wrote about the company, and he explained this very point.  Zara has a whole package that is very hard to imitate.  Placing factories closer to stores may have some benefits, but that doesn't mean these rivals can match Zara's fast fashion success.

Will Analytics Save the Gap? Not Without a Strategy Reboot!

Khadeeja Safdar reported in the Wall Street Journal this week about CEO Art Peck's efforts to turn around apparel retailer The Gap. According to the article, "The Gap Inc.'s market value has shrunk to about $10 billion, from roughly $40 billion at its 2000 peak. Revenue has stalled at about $16 billion—flat from a decade ago." The Gap owns several retail chains (including Banana Republic, Gap, and Old Navy). 

The article points out that, "The 61-year-old CEO is blunt in his criticism of the industry’s long fascination with creative executives who are given broad powers to set the overall image of a brand. 'We have cycled through so many, and each has been proclaimed as the next savior,' he said. In the end, they were 'false messiahs.'" Peck favors combining science with art. He hopes analytics can help drive better merchandising decisions, rather than relying on the intuition and foresight of powerful creative directors for each brand. 

I would argue that no amount of focus on analytics can save The Gap, particularly its namesake brand. The company has a strategy problem first and foremost. That problem has to do with the competitive positioning of the three brands. Each major brand does not have a distinctive competitive positioning. Moreover, the Gap brand is clearly stuck in the middle, trapped with an ambiguous strategy somewhere between the low cost position at Old Navy and the differentiated position at Banana Republic. That problem has existed for more than a decade. Until the company solves that problem, no amount of reforms in its merchandising process can save this once-iconic brand. 

Moreover, as the article notes, the Gap has failed to adapt to the fast fashion strategies of competitors such as Zara. The Spanish retailer has developed a completely different strategic positioning and unique value chain. Copying one or two elements of Zara's strategy will not suffice. Zara is successful because of the entire system of activities and choices that they have made. The Gap has made a vastly different set of choices, and they have undertaken quite different activities. Adapting the Gap's value chain to fit the new competitive environment will be very difficult.

Struggles at the Gap

Martha White interviewed me for this story about the Gap's struggles and its decision to close many stores. Some past students will recall doing MBA course projects on the company and recommending significant changes in strategy.