How Do You Compare Very Similar Options?

Source:  JBSA

You face a tough decision, and there appear to be two very similar options.  How do you choose?  University of Texas Professor Art Markman discusses this topic in an article for Fast Company this week.  He describes research that he has conducted about alignable vs. nonalignable differences.  He explains:

Research I did early in my career found that there are two kinds of differences that emerge from comparisons. Some differences are directly related to what a pair of options have in common. For example, if you are deciding between two apartments, one might be on a higher floor in the building than the other. These differences are called alignable differences, because they relate to how the information about the options is placed in correspondence.  Some differences are unrelated to what the options have in common. For example, one apartment might have a breakfast nook, while the other does not. These differences are called nonalignable differences.

When we compare options, we often focus intently on the alignable differences.  If there are few of these distinctions, we conclude that the alternatives are quite similar.   We struggle to decide.  However, we need to make sure that we are also examining the nonalignable differences.  These might be quite important, and they ought to be considered carefully.  Markman suggests stopping the comparison and contrast for a moment.  Use your imagination for a bit.  Try to imagine what it will be like to live with a particular option, and that may help you understand the attributes that you care about a great deal.  Then do the same thing with the other alternatives.  As you examine each option in this imaginative way, you might come to understand that some of these nonalignable differences matter a great deal more than others.  

Finding the Right Question

Fast Company's Stephanie Vozza has an article this week about Phil Mudd's new book The HEAD Game: High-Efficiency Analytic Decision Making and the Art of Solving Complex Problems Quickly.  Mudd is a former CIA and FBI executive - an expert on counter-terrorism.  I interviewed Mudd numerous times while working on a series of Harvard Business School case studies about the FBI's transformation after the 9/11 attacks.  Mudd offers a series of interesting tips regarding how to make better decisions.  I found this first point especially important to highlight here.  Here's an excerpt from Vozza's article:

People often focus on the wrong question because they assume questions are self-evident, says Mudd. Focusing on better questions up front yields better answers later.  "Good questions are hard to come up with," he says. "We typically overinvest our time in analyzing problems by jumping right to the data and the conclusions, while under-investing in thinking about exactly what it is we want to know."  Start with what you’re trying to accomplish and work your way back, instead of moving forward and making conclusions.  The right question provides a decision advantage to the person at the head of the table. Mudd says you can find the right question by looking backwards. Start with what you’re trying to accomplish and work your way back, instead of moving forward and making conclusions.

I agree with Mudd here.  I've argued in my work that leaders need to be careful about jumping into problem-solving mode.   I advocate stepping back to "decide how to decide" - i.e. think carefully about how you will organize your team and the type of decision-making process that you will employ to make a tough call.   If you do not decide how to decide, it's natural for many teams to encounter groupthink.   Mudd makes the case that you also can end up solving the wrong problem.   How you frame an issue often drives the type of alternatives that you consider.  Getting the framing right is a key first step an effective decision-making process.