- Teams are selecting more quarterbacks in the first round now than they did years ago. We shouldn't be surprised at this fact, given that the passing game is much more important today. Teams are clearly investing in a position which has much more value and contributes more to winning today than 50 years ago. In the period from 1970-1989, teams selected 1.9 quarterbacks per year in the first round. That number rose to 2.8 quarterbacks per year in the period from 2000-2019.
- Despite the advanced scouting and analytics, and the tremendous investment in talent evaluation today, teams are not any better at identifying stars than they were in the past. 50% of the quarterbacks selected in the first round from 1970-1989 made at least one Pro Bowl. Did the NFL general managers improve their hit rate in more recent years? Not one iota. 50% of the quarterbacks picked in the first round from 2000-2019 made the Pro Bowl at least once. No improvement despite all that work to allegedly improve talent evaluation!
- How many champions did the teams identify in these years? From 1970-1989, 8 of the 38 quarterbacks selected in the first round were the starting quarterbacks on Super Bowl championship teams. That equates to 21% of the players selected. From 2000-2019, only 5 of the 56 quarterbacks chosen in the first round have won a Super Bowl (just 9%). Now, that number is lower, in part, because some of these players have many years left in their career. Others will surely win Super Bowls. It is also lower because a certain quarterback drafted in the 6th round, who played here in New England, won so many championships since 2000. Having said that, the fact is that many of the most elite quarterbacks in NFL history win multiple championships. Thus, a small set of quarterbacks end up champions. Consider that 5 players have won 36% of the Super Bowls ever played (Brady, Bradshaw, Montana, Aikman, and Mahomes). 12 players have won 60% of the Super Bowls ever played! Thus, the chances of selecting a future champion remain very low, despite all the investment in talent evaluation.
Musings about Leadership, Decision Making, and Competitive Strategy
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
The NFL Draft: Are Teams Getting Better at Selecting Talent?
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
When We Hire, Should We Consider How Well-Connected Candidates Are?
Although employees do not necessarily make connections for the company’s benefit, we find that companies’ centrality in the employee network positively predicts company value. This effect is largely driven by mid-level employees. Furthermore, company centrality in the employee network predicts company innovation inputs (R&D spending), and controlling for these inputs, predicts the quantity, scientific impact, and economic value of companies’ patented innovation outcomes.
Thursday, April 04, 2024
Be a Loud Listener
I'm looking forward to hearing David Brooks speak at my daughter's graduation from Vanderbilt University next month. Brooks, a writer for the New York Times, has written a new book titled, " How to Know a Person: The Art of Seeing Others Deeply and Being Deeply Seen. I'm reading the book now, and it has some terrific insights on how we can connect, empathize, and communicate with others more effectively. Brooks appeared recently on Matt Abraham's podcast from Stanford. Brooks introduces a very interesting concept. He describes the value of being a "loud listener" when communicating with others:
Friday, March 29, 2024
Three Voices Every Leader Needs
Fortune's Michal Lev-Ram and Alan Murray recently interviewed Otis Elevator CEO Judy Marks at Deloitte University. Marks offered some great insights to the assembled group of leaders from a variety of companies. In the interview, Marks offered a great comment about the types of voices that a leader needs to hear now and again. She specifically mentioned three voices:
Saturday, March 23, 2024
Eliminate the Bosses? Organizational Transformation or Corporate Fad?
Source: https://www.organimi.com/ |
The Wall Street Journal's Chip Cutter has written about the transformation underway at Bayer, led by its new CEO, Bill Anderson. The article is titled, "One CEO’s Radical Fix for Corporate Troubles: Purge the Bosses." The 160-year-old company has struggled mightily in recent years, particularly after a problematic acquisition of Monsanto. Anderson's transformation plan calls for the establishment of 5,000 to 6,000 self-directed teams, as well as the elimination of many middle management roles. He has taken aim at the pile of rules and regulations that govern employee conduct and decision making, hoping to streamline many processes.
Friday, March 22, 2024
Action vs. State Orientation: Who is More Vulnerable to the Sunk Cost Trap?
Source: The MSLs' Liaison Newsletter |
"Individuals with a strong action orientation are able to devote their cognitive resources to the task at hand, thus enabling them to expediently move from a present goal state to some desired future goal state. These individuals flexibly allocate their attention for the purpose of task execution and goal attainment. Persons who are more action oriented are characterized by enhanced performance efficiency and the ability to complete tasks after minor failures or setbacks."
On the other hand, Diefendorff and his colleagues describe a state orientation as follows:
Alternatively, individuals with more of a state orientation tend to have persistent, ruminative thoughts about alternative goals or affective states, which reduces the cognitive resources available for goal-striving. This reduction of available resources impairs state-oriented individuals' ability to initiate activities and to follow tasks through to completion, especially when the activities are difficult, nonroutine, or both.
How do these contrasting orientations affect our decision making? Are individuals with one of these orientations more vulnerable to certain cognitive biases when making critical choices? Marijke van Putten and his co-authors examined this question with specific focus on the sunk cost trap. In other words, they asked the question: Are individuals with a strong state orientation more susceptible to throwing good money after bad than individuals with a strong action orientation? They posited that state-oriented people would ruminate about past events and dwell on past failure. Consequently, they might try to recoup past losses and escalate commitment to failing courses of action. Action-oriented people would, according to their hypothesis, focus on the future. That forward focus would enable them to cut their losses and de-escalate commitment to an ineffective course of action.
The findings from an experiment confirmed their hypothesis. The sample size was rather small, and more work certainly needs to be done in this area. However, the initial exploratory results are quite intriguing to me. It speaks to a broader set of psychological research suggesting that people's well-being and decision-making abilities may suffer if we them to dwell or ruminate on their emotional state. Encouraging people to shift toward an action orientation may be beneficial.
Monday, March 04, 2024
What are Your REAL Values?
In this article, Maclellan cites Ann Skeet, senior director at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University. Skeet says, “When people bring things to your attention, it’s an opportunity to reset expectations and to clarify culture. But if the leadership says that we can continue even when people are surfacing things they feel are inconsistent with the organization’s espoused values, it suggests there is another set of values that are actually being applied.”
Skeet makes an important distinction here between an organization's espoused values and its values-in-use (a concept first articulated by Chris Argyris). The espoused values are those that we find on the placard posted on the wall, or articulated by senior leaders when addressing employees and other stakeholders. The values-in-use are the REAL values as identified by the ACTIONS of the leaders in the organization. When employees perceive a serious disconnect between the espoused values and the values-in-use, then disenchantment and disengagement rise. Some people stay silent in the face of serious problems. Others simply exit the organization. Leaders at all levels need to constantly ask themselves: Are we walking the talk? Are we living up to our espoused values? Or, are employees perceiving us as disingenuous? If so, why has that perception arisen?
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Does Money Serve as an Effective Motivator for Certain Types of Work, But Not Others?
(Shutterstock.com/retrorocket) |
Does money serve as a more effective motivator for certain types of work, but not others? That is the fundamental question explored by scholars in a recent working paper. Pamela Osborn Popp, Ben Newell, Daniel Bartels, and Todd Gureckis have written a paper titled, "Can Cognitive Discovery Be Incentivized With Money?" They conducted six experiments. In the first five experiments, they asked research subjects to examine a set of items. The participants had to determine how the items might be categorized sensibly into groups and then assign them appropriately. The scholars describe this task as "rule discovery" work. In the sixth experiment, the subjects engaged in "rule implementation" work. In that study, the scholars told the subjects what the categorization process should be, and the participants simply had to apply that criteria.
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Why Do We Miss Key Opportunities?
Why do people fail to take advantage of these opportunities? Perhaps, we anticipate the emotions that we will experience if we fail, and we are trying to avoid those negative feelings. We might not only worry about how we are going to feel, but about how others will perceive us if we don't achieve a successful outcome.
The question is: Are we over-estimating the negative repercussions of an unsuccessful outcome? Do we anticipate the negative emotions lasting much longer than they actually will? Are we exaggerating the reputational hit we might take if we don't succeed?
In writing about this research for BPS Digest, Emma Young recalls the famous Wayne Gretzky quote: ”You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” Perhaps we need to remind ourselves that pursuing stretch goals is worthwhile. In fact, there may be a great deal of fulfillment associated with taking on big challenges. Moreover, we should recall what Daniel Pink wrote about in his excellent book, The Power of Regret. Pink notes that people tend to experience more regret in life about paths they did not pursue than actions they undertook.
Tuesday, February 06, 2024
Learning on the Job: Do We Learn and Develop Faster with In-Person Collaboration?
Source: https://www.myworldofwork.co.uk |
Friday, February 02, 2024
Fighting Back Against Becoming Insular & Isolated
Source: www.cleartouch.com |
1. Walk a mile in the customer's shoes from time to time. Don't just ask customers what they think; actually put yourself into their situation. What is it like to purchase your product or service? What are the pain points and frustrations of your customers?
2. Open your eyes when you travel and look for the unexpected. When we drive to work each day, traveling the same route, we are usually on auto pilot. We don't have to think much, and we often don't notice much along our path. When we travel, our minds are more alert, and we have to think a bit more about where we are going and how to get there. Use these travel opportunities to notice the differences between your home city or country and the place you are visiting. What is different about consumer preferences? What cultural differences stand out to you? What local competitors are behaving in interesting new ways? How might these factors influence your business?
3. Study organizations outside your industry. Don't just remain laser focused on the 3-5 major rivals with whom you compete each day. Find interesting companies, far and wide, from which you can learn. What interesting practices are they employing? How have they overcome challenges similar to those you face?
4. Go out and recruit new talent on college campuses. Don't just send your front-line human resources staff members, or your young workers who are alumni from those schools. Send some more senior leaders to those colleges. Encourage them to interact with the young people and ask them questions, rather than just providing information about your company. Find out what they care about, how they view your organization, and what they think about your products and services.
5. Encourage a few people on your team to role play the competition when you are making a big decision. Ask them to really study how your rivals think and act, and then encourage them to propose how your rivals will react to your decision.
6. Read voraciously, but don't just read the business news and a few books relevant to your industry. Read more broadly, and keep a journal reflecting on what you have learned.
Monday, January 29, 2024
The Kyte Baby CEO Apologizes: Could the Apology Do More Harm Than Good?
Source: https://marketoonist.com/2017/04/corporateapologies.html |
CNN's Ramishah Maruf reported this week about the severe backlash that occurred recently for a children's clothing brand with a cult-like following. Kyte Baby is one of several popular brands of bamboo fiber clothing for kids. These brands market their clothing as better for children's skin. According to Kyte Baby's website, "Bamboo is, simply, the Goldilocks of fabrics—not too hot, not too cold. It’s temperature-regulating, and while we’re pretty confident it’s the softest fabric you’ll ever feel, it’s also super stretchy to grow with baby and fit longer. Perfect for crying babies, busy toddlers, and tired parents alike."
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Stanley's Having a Moment: Should They Be Worried?
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Stuck in a Rut
Source: https://hrcsuite.com/pioneers/ |
Alicea Lieberman, On Amir and Ziv Carmon have published an interesting new paper titled, "The entrenchment effect: Why people persist with less-preferred behaviors." The scholars conducted a series of experiments to examine why people become stuck in "behavioral ruts." We can all relate, of course. At times, we find ourselves continuing to engage in undesirable activities even though we could rather easily switch to a more enjoyable or beneficial course of action. The scholars note that many explanations exist for this suboptimal behavior, including the sunk cost trap. However, they explore another potential explanation for behavioral ruts. They describe this causal mechanism as entrenchment, defined as "the increased accessibility of a task set which strengthens with repetition and continuity and makes constructing an alternative task set feel difficult, leading people to forgo opportunities to make beneficial changes."
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Lesson from the Closing of the Belichick Era in New England
Tuesday, January 09, 2024
Changing Behavior by Making a Process MORE Difficult Rather than Less
https://buffalo7.co.uk/blog/how-to-get-buy-in/ |
To test their hypothesis, they conducted a field experiment with Oregon Department of Transportation. Several years ago, the department migrated to a new carpool platform for residents of the state. The scholars noted that there were many inactive users on the old platform (87% of all accounts). In other words, they had established accounts, but they were not actually using the carpool services.
The scholars examined whether a slightly different procedure for migrating inactive users to the new platform might have an impact on sign-ups and usage. Some users were provided information regarding a low-effort method for moving to the new platform. Others received information regarding a sign-up process that involved more effort. Here's what the scholars found:
"More Effort group took more trips overall, despite there being fewer participants who signed up to the platform: while 694 signed up from the Less Effort group, only 511 signed up from the More Effort group. During our 122-day study period, we observed 9,147 total trips; out of these, the More Effort group took 5,106 trips, while the Less Effort group took 4,311, meaning that More Effort group took 795 more trips overall than our Less Effort group."
Why did adding friction actually increase usage of the carpool platform? The scholars don't have a way of actually determining the psychological mechanism underlying individual behavior in this case. However, they offer some possible explanations. For example, they suggest that people may "feel a greater sense of psychological ownership over the action and value it to a greater extent, which would increase their likelihood of following through." They also note that the sunk cost effect may be at play here. If you are invested some time and effort into a process, you may continue down that path because you don't want to "waste" the initial investment you have made.
Tuesday, January 02, 2024
Some Great Reads from 2023
Here are some of my favorite books that I read in the past year:
- The Devils Will Get No Rest, by James Conroy
- Outsmart Your Brain, by Daniel Willingham
- Hero of Two Worlds, by Mike Duncan
- Unscripted, by James Stewart and Rachel Abrams
- Right Kind of Wrong, by Amy Edmondson
- The Revolutionary Samuel Adams, by Stacy Schiff
- The League, by John Eisenberg
- The Restless Republic, by Anna Keay
- The Power of Regret, by Daniel Pink
- It's Not TV, by Felix Gillette and John Koblin
- Elon Musk, by Walter Isaacson
- Our Man in Tokyo, by Steve Kemper