Here are some of my favorite books that I read in the past year. The reading list certainly is eclectic, but I learned a great deal from each of them. My suggestion: put your phone down, find a comfortable quiet spot, pick up a book, and enjoy!
Musings about Leadership, Decision Making, and Competitive Strategy
Here are some of my favorite books that I read in the past year. The reading list certainly is eclectic, but I learned a great deal from each of them. My suggestion: put your phone down, find a comfortable quiet spot, pick up a book, and enjoy!
In this post, I'm not providing an overall evaluation of the deal. However, I would like to focus on one facet of the potential acquisition that will be challenging for Netflix. For years now, Netflix has been a vertically integrated entertainment company. In other words, they have created content in their studios and distributed that content on their own streaming platform. However, they have not distributed content on other platforms. It has been a closed system. Now, they are acquiring Warner. That studio produces content for many different distribution outlets, not just HBO Max. The question becomes: What will other content buyers think when Netflix becomes the owner of Warner? Might they wonder why Netflix would be willing to put some content up for sale/distribution on other platforms? Might they think: If the content is so good, why not stream it on Netflix? Will they ponder: Are we getting access to lesser quality shows that Netflix does not want to stream on its own platforms?
Herein lies a key challenge with vertical integration. You may find yourself competing with your customers (Netflix competes with other media distribution outlets such as other streaming platforms, cable networks, broadcast networks, etc.). When you compete with your customers, it creates potential conflicts of interest. Making the Warner acquisition a success will require navigating these challenging relationships. Others in the entertainment business do it, but some have found it very difficult at times. Netflix does not have much experience with this type of arrangement to this point.
Of course, you might argue that they could avoid this problem if they simply distribute all Warner content on their own platforms (Netflix and HBO Max). However, you then have to ask: Did they have to spend $72 billion on an acquisition to gain access to that valuable content? Perhaps, but you do have to apply the ownership test. In other words, would some other organizational arrangement have accomplished similar goals without the hefty price tag?
It turns out that we are not always very good at discerning whether another party is listening closely or feigning attentiveness. UCLA's Anderson Review recently spotlighted the research of Professor Hanne Collins and her colleagues, writing:
How do we decide which assumptions warrant the most attention and should be tested vigorously? Jon Fjeld was a long-time tech industry executive, and he now teaches at Duke's Fuqua School of Business. He has a simple method for determining which assumptions need to be scrutinized first. He argues that three factors are critical:
1. Severity: How big is the impact on the project if the assumption is not true?
2. Probability: How likely is it that the assumption is not true?
3. Cost: How expensive and time consuming is it to test the assumption?
Fjeld uses these three factors to create a simple ratio that can be used to rank your assumptions. His equation is: (Severity x Probability)/Cost. The higher the ratio, the more important it is that your prioritize the testing and validation of that assumption. While we don't actually have a clear way to quantify these three factors, the concept of this ratio makes good sense. By thinking about these three factors, and their relationship to one another, we can do a better job of deciding how we want to test, experiment, and prototype before making a big bet.
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