Competitive Rivalry Increases Risk-Taking Behavior

Intuitively, many of us probably believe that heated competition with a rival increases our propensity to take risks.   That type of behavior occurs in sports, at school, and in the business world as well.   Several scholars chose to examine whether the data support this conventional wisdom.  Here is what they found, as summarized in this NYU Stern Research Highlight:

In this first-of-its-kind study, the authors (NYU Stern PhD student Christopher To , NYU Professor Gavin Kilduff, University of Arizona Professor Lisa Ordóñez, and Wharton Professor Maurice Schweitzer) examined archival data from more than 2,000 regular season NFL games, totaling almost 500,000 unique plays, and found that teams, when competing against a rival team, were 37% more likely to forgo kicking an extra point to instead attempt a two-point conversion and 17% more likely to “go for it” on fourth-down by running a play instead of punting or attempting a field goal. A related behavioral study with more than 140 University of Arizona students confirmed their results and showed perceived rivals took 17% more risks than non-rivals, which was partly explained by a 11% greater increase in their heart rate.

As a New England Patriots fan, I immediately think of Bill Belichick's ill-fated decision to go for it on Fourth and 2 yards to go from the Patriots' own 28 yard line against the Colts in 2009.  In fact, the legendary coach has made some of his riskiest decisions against heated rivals in big games.  Belichick didn't have much confidence that his defense could stop Peyton Manning on that night in 2009.  Manning and the Colts, of course, were huge rivals of the Patriots in those years.   The coach made a very risky decision, hoping to keep the ball and run out the clock rather than give Manning another opportunity on offense.  It didn't work. The Patriots did not make a first down, and Manning promptly marched the Colts into the endzone for the victory.    Sometimes, rivalry might indeed cause us to make ill-fated risky choices.  You make a bold decision, and if it doesn't work, you take a great deal of heat.  That's what happened to Belichick on that night.  I'm not sure it was a bad decision actually, but it certainly was highly risky. 

On the other hand, sometimes heated rivalries can cause us to take innovative risks.   Not all risk-taking is bad. Sometimes, it involves creative choices spurred by competitive rivalry.   Consider another very famous Belichick decision.  In 2003, the Patriots trailed the Denver Broncos (another key rival) by 1 point with just over 3 minutes left in the game.  The Patriots faced a fourth down and ten yards to go from their own 1 yard line.  A punt from there would be difficult to execute, and it would probably give the Broncos the ball with tremendous field position.  Instead, Belichick made the very bold decision to take a safety intentionally, causing the Patriots to fall further behind (26-23 at that point).  However, the Patriots could now kick off from the 20 yard line, and a good kick sent the Broncos all the way back to their own 15 yard line.  The Patriots defense stopped them in three downs, received the ball back with decent field position, and then Brady worked his usual magic.  A short time later, he threw a touchdown pass to David Givens to win the game.   In this case, competitive rivalry may have led to innovation, to a beneficial form of risk-taking behavior.  

In sum, the study confirms that competitive rivalry increases our propensity to take risk. However, the scholars make an important point.  Such behavior may not always be detrimental to the organization.  Sometimes, rivalry sparks innovation.