Saturday, November 24, 2018

Not All Failure is Smart Failure

Source:  Flckr

Several months ago, long-time executive and now Duke Professor Jon Fjeld published an article for Sloan Management Review titled, "How to Test Your Assumptions."   He begins the article by questioning the "fail fast" approach embraced by many entrepreneurs in recent years.   He notes that many startups do not understand the lean startup philosophy, and they are implementing it in a haphazard and ineffective way.  He writes: 


The enthusiasm surrounding the “lean startup methodology” and its many offshoots has created a mindset that entrepreneurs should just launch, failing early and often — iterating, to use startup parlance. But failure alone does not teach. If there are an infinite number of bad ideas, eliminating one gets us no closer to a good idea. Rather, the businessperson contemplating a new venture must begin by evaluating factors that have to be true for the venture to succeed. He or she also must model these factors in a way that allows for reasonable testing. For example, the assumption that people will buy a product for the asking price is a big one; it would take a full launch to completely validate this. Therefore, the entrepreneur must split big assumptions into discrete, manageable assumptions that can be tested at a level of detail allowing for efficient learning.

He makes a terrific point.  Not all failure is instructive.  At times, you can fail, but find yourself unable to distinguish among many causal factors to which that failure can be attributed.  In fact, these types of failures can be enormously costly, because individuals can derive incorrect attributions easiliy, and then make the wrong kinds of changes in hopes of averting failure in the future.  Failing fast works best when you can test your ideas in ways that enable you to identify what went wrong and WHY it went wrong.   Sometimes, two or three possible causes should be considered, and another test may be conducted to determine which of these factors led to the failure.  

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