How Do We Select Managers? Where Self-Promotion Goes Awry

Source: https://www.aihr.com/blog/hiring-manager/

Ben Weidmann, Joseph Vecci, Farah Said, David Deming, and Sonia Bhalotra have published a thought-provoking new NBER working paper titled, "How Do You Find a Good Manager?"  The paper ingeniously uses an experimental methodology to examine whether self-promotion is harmful or helpful in the managerial selection process.   They find that people who nominate themselves for managerial roles tend to perform worse than those individuals selected randomly!  Moreover, they find that the "self-promoters" may be underperforming because they overestimate their own interpersonal skills. In short, overconfidence seems to be a significant problem for these self-promoters.  Here's an excerpt from their paper: 

Do people who want to be managers perform well in the job? We explore this question by randomly varying the manager selection mechanism in our experiment. After describing the expected tasks and compensation structure of the manager and worker roles, we elicit participants’ eagerness to be a manager on a 1-10 scale. Half of groups were randomly assigned to a “self-promotion” treatment where participants with the strongest preferences became managers. Managers were assigned randomly in the other half of groups. We find that self-promotion is worse than choosing managers randomly. Teams with self-promoted managers perform 0.1 standard deviations lower than teams with randomly assigned managers. This magnitude is roughly equivalent to being assigned a manager with fluid IQ one standard deviation lower. We show that self-selection can lead to mistaken inferences about the characteristics of good managers. People who prefer to be in charge– who we call ‘self-promoters’– have characteristics that differ from the broader population. For example, we find suggestive evidence that self-promoters tend to overestimate their own social skills relative to an objective test of emotional perceptiveness called the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test (RMET).   Among self-promoted managers, we find a negative relationship between self-reported people skills and managerial performance. In contrast, randomly selected managers do not tend to overestimate their social skills, and we find no negative relationship between self-reported people skills and managerial performance.

Naturally, more work needs to be done to examine how these dynamics play out in actual organizations rather than experimental settings.  Yet, intuitively, the findings resonate with me.  Considering the implications for hiring process should be top of mind for those leaders tasked with selecting managers for their teams.