Should Southwest Airlines Change?

Source: TripAdvisor

The Wall Street Journal published an interesting article this week titled "Meet the Southwest Superfans Who Don’t Want the Airline to Change." Dawn Gilbertson writes that some very loyal customers do not want the airline to make some of the dramatic changes being considered by management in the face of a push from an activist investor, Elliott Investment Management.  The hedge fund and some other investors would like to see Southwest offer a series of additional benefits and collect fees for those amenities as other airlines do.  Many other airlines generate substantial revenue from those additional charges.  Some of these huge fans of the airline don't want to see these changes.  These loyal customers would like to see Southwest remain committed to its original model.   The hedge fund thinks that Southwest runs the risk of being stuck in the past, tied to an outdated business model.

The situation represents a classic strategy conundrum.  Southwest Airlines became highly successful because it made a series of critical tradeoffs, exemplifying Michael Porter's concept that, "The essence of strategy is choosing what NOT to do."  They didn't offer assigned seats, first class sections, etc.  These tradeoffs not only made Southwest distinctive, but they made the airline difficult to imitate.  When incumbents tried to create new brands to compete with Southwest, they struggled mightily (think Delta with Song and United with Ted).   Southwest used its unique business model to establish a successful low-cost position in the airline industry.  While most others struggled, it produced profits year after year, even during recessions.  Southwest's challenge now is that they no longer have a clear cost advantage in the industry.   Ultra low-cost carriers have lower costs per available seat mile in some cases.  Thus, the problem is not simply that they are missing out on revenue streams others have developed.  They may not have the cost edge that enables lower pricing than rivals and creates a competitive advantage.  

When companies experience slowing growth or other financial challenges, they often feel the pressure to abandon some of the tradeoffs that made them so distinctive.   The thinking goes like this: these tradeoffs limit potential set of customers we can attract, and if we want to thrive, we have to update our strategy to meet changing consumer trends.  All of that makes a great deal of sense.  However, as firms abandon the tradeoffs they have made, they became more and more like other competitors in their industry.   In short, they might just juice revenue and profits in the near term by changing the strategy, but ultimately, the firm becomes less and less distinctive.  Strategy convergence takes place within the industry, and when that happens, industry profits tend to fall.  

Interestingly, Jost Daft and Sascha Albers conducted a study of the European airline industry a decade ago. They studied 26 European airlines from 2004-2012.  They measured the average "distance" between company business models.  They found that the average distance declined by 19% during this time period.  However, they note one exception in the industry:  

"In 2012, a low-cost carrier (Ryanair) again featured the highest average distance (0.4468) to all other airlines. Moreover, Ryanair was the only airline in the sample to increase its average distance and to become more differentiated from all other competitors, while all other airlines were becoming more similar." 

What's interesting about this finding?  Well, Ryanair produced very high profits throughout this time period.  They remained true to a no-frills strategy, refusing to compromise on the bedrock principles of their low-cost strategy.  Many other airlines struggled as their strategies converged with rivals. 

This finding offers a word of caution as Southwest navigates this period during which they are considering changes to the core business model.  They need to cope with changing consumer trends and preferences, as well as new threats from competitors who have changed their strategies in recent years.  At the same time, they don't want to just follow the crowd.  Activist investors should not simply be looking at revenue and profit enhancements in the very near term, but thinking carefully about how the strategy should evolve so as to remain distinct from competitors.