How Do We Avoid Getting Caught by Surprise?

Why do we get caught by surprise at times? A competitor catches us off guard with an innovative new product launch. A new social trend emerges that shifts consumer tastes substantially. A sudden shift in workforce engagement and employee turnover stuns us. How can we avoid getting surprised by such changes?   

In a new study, Nir Halevy, Elizabeth Miclau, and Serena Lee argue that the traditional explanations may not suffice.  Conventional wisdom suggests that such surprises often occur because managers fail to gather, attend to, and evaluate information effectively.  They stick to pre-existing beliefs rather than adjusting their conclusions based on new data, or they dismiss those with dissenting views.  In short, people miss the signals because they are not processing information effectively.  Halevy and colleagues provide an alternative explanation.  In their paper, published American Psychologist, the researchers posit that, "strategic surprises emerge when individuals, organizations, and nations think too abstractly or too concretely during strategic interactions."  Stanford Leadership Insights summarizes the scholars' main argument:

"The researchers suggest that people and institutions can be caught off guard when they think too abstractly or too concretely about the information related to a particular situation. The quality of information matters, but so does the framework in which it is interpreted.  Overly abstract thinking relies on broad schemas that can lead decision-makers to apply poorly fitting mental models, misjudge possible threats or opportunities, or assume that others will behave in stereotypical ways. Concrete thinking, on the other hand, involves being deeply immersed in the minutiae of a specific situation, which can lead people to ignore broad trends." 

Thus, the scholars suggest that we shift between abstract and concrete thinking as we evaluate data about emerging trends, marketplace dynamics, and consumer preferences.  In so doing, we are more likely to arrive at robust conclusions.  You are less likely to get caught off guard.