Showing posts with label disruptive innovation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label disruptive innovation. Show all posts

Friday, February 13, 2015

Another Crack in the Cable Bundle: Streaming Showtime?

During CBS' earnings call yesterday, CBS CEO Les Moonves reported that "CBSN" - a streaming service launched in 2014 - had exceeded the firm's expectations.   He went one step further and suggested that the company would launch a streaming service for Showtime in 2015.  Of course, HBO announced a streaming service several months ago, but they indicated that the price would be equivalent to what customers pay when subscribing to HBO through their cable company.  Could Showtime move more aggressively and undercut the price available through the cable providers?   If so, it would represent the boldest step yet to undermine the cable bundle.   

The big question still remains: What will Disney do?   They own a huge amount of content that is very attractive to consumers  - all the Disney-related children's programming plus all the ESPN-related sports programming plus the ABC-related news and entertainment products.  If Disney follows Showtime and HBO, then cable providers will begin to feel a great deal of pressure.  Of course, the key question will still be:  When will someone offer streaming at a price BELOW the fees paid through the cable providers?  Each firm, of course, wants to be careful not to "kill the golden goose" i.e. to cannibalize their own profitable business in partnership with cable providers.  However, at some point, the market will tip. The opportunity available from "cord-cutters" will be attractive enough to convince some firms to move more aggressively.   Which firm will act like Apple did when it launched the iPad and the iPhone?  In those cases, Apple was willing to eat its own lunch rather than allow a rival to eat it (i.e. the iPhone cannibalized the iPod and the iPad cannibalized laptop sales).   Most firms in a wide range of industries resist cannibalization, and for that reason, are often late with regard to reacting to disruptive innovations.  Will entertainment companies be different in this case? 

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Jimmy Kimmel, the Uber Driver

Uber has to love this free publicity.   Jimmy Kimmel became an Uber driver for one afternoon.  Check it out!


Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Disruptive Innovation: Lepore vs. Christensen

Last week, Harvard historian Jill Lepore wrote a scathing critique of Harvard Business School Professor Clayton Christensen's theory of disruptive innovation.  Just a few days ago, Christensen responded to the critique in an interview conducted with Business Week writer Drake Bennett.  Many people have asked me about my views on this debate in the past few days, given that I spent a great deal of my career at Harvard as a student and faculty member.  Therefore, here are a few thoughts.  

First, let me acknowledge that I know Clay Christensen very well, and I have never met Jill Lepore. I took a doctoral seminar with Clay when I was a graduate student, and I co-taught a doctoral seminar with Clay when I was on the faculty at HBS. I have known him for twenty years. In the Business Week article, Bennett writes that colleagues and students generally think of Clay as a "generous and thoughtful and upbeat" person. I would agree. He has integrity and cares about others a great deal. Thus, I'm biased. I must admit to being taken aback by the scathing nature of the critique in this New Yorker piece. It's one thing to identify the flaws in another person's work, but the tone of the criticism caught me off-guard... particularly given that both individuals are colleagues at the same academic institution (though Harvard is a big place, and the two have apparently not met).

Does the New Yorker piece raise a good point though?   Let me start by acknowledging that the term "disruptive innovation" has become a widely overused cliche.   People seemingly apply to the term to every failure of large incumbent firms.  They also fail to examine the multiple causes of such failures.  They fixate solely on the dynamics explained in Christensen's model.    We should be careful not to blame Christensen for all the mistakes of his readers though.  On the other hand, all of us in academia fall into the trap, at times, of taking our favorite hammer (our preferred frameworks and models) and beginning to see every situation in the world as a nail (a problem or situation that can be explained by our theory). Christensen has applied his framework quite broadly, and perhaps at times, he has made mistakes by extending it to situations in which it does not quite fit (the iPhone perhaps).  

I see three other challenges with the model of disruptive innovation.  First, I think it works beautifully as a descriptive model helping us explain past situations.  It can be more problematic when applied as a predictive framework.   Many academic frameworks have this weakness.  Markets and organizations are fundamentally complex, and we would be hard-pressed to find frameworks that have high predictive accuracy in a wide range of contexts.   However, many people crave simplicity.  We demand that academics provide findings that can be generalized across many settings.  We don't like when academics say that the answer "depends" on the situation.  Second, incumbent firms can certainly make crucial mistakes if they fail to react in a timely and appropriate fashion to a disruptive innovation.  On the other hand, many firms these days have made huge bets as they have tried to counter what they viewed as disruptive threats.  Many big errors have been made in this regard.  In short, there are two types of errors: we probably should pay as much attention to the bad bets made in over-reacting to apparent disruption as we do to the incumbent firms who fail to react swiftly to disruption and get toppled from their perch atop an industry.   Finally, we have to be careful about the prescription that incumbent firms should separate units that are aiming to cope with a disruptive threat.  It may indeed be the right short term strategy, so that the core business unit does not "eat its young" so to speak.  However, in the long run, a company has to think about how the whole is worth more than the sum of the parts.  Competitive advantage comes from the alignment or fit with an integrated system of activities.  If the new unit is "too separate," then the firm may find itself with two parts that are not mutually enhancing.   In fact, there may be fundamental contradictions that make it quite difficult for the two units to co-exist in the same organization. 


Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Jill Lepore Takes on Clay Christensen

Harvard historian Jill Lepore has written a tough critique of her colleague Clay Christensen's theory of disruptive innovation in the New Yorker.   It's a long read, but definitely worth taking a close look.   I'll have comments about Lepore's argument on this blog in upcoming days. 

Monday, January 27, 2014

Online Experimentation at ESPN

The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article today about ESPN's efforts to experiment with online video offerings via its WatchESPN app for smartphones and tablets.  You can watch games live via the WatchESPN app, but you must be a cable subscriber to do so.  What about the "cord-cutters" - i.e. the young people who have never bought cable television subscriptions, or who have terminated their cable television in favor of simply having Netflix and other modes of viewing programming of interest to them?  Those folks can't take advantage of WatchESPN.   Why not?   Well, it's all about worries regarding cannibalization.   Sound familiar?  Most incumbent firms facing disruptive threats are fearful of embracing innovations that might cannibalize their core business.  Of course, they often end up in a situation where someone else just comes along and eats their lunch, after they spent years worrying about eating their own lunch.  Here's an excerpt from the article:

Mr. Skipper, a 59-year-old former Spin magazine executive who took the helm of ESPN in 2012, acknowledged a "dissonance" between its instinct to disseminate its content as widely as possible and the usage restrictions designed to safeguard the core television business. "There's no denying there's a certain element of protection and defense," he said.

How worried should ESPN be?  Well, the article cites the fact that the firm lost approximately 1.5 million subscribers between September 2011 and September 2013.   In other words, cord-cutting is a real phenomenon that is beginning to put pressure on ESPN.   Will it cause them to embrace an even bolder business model?  Well, the article notes that HBO is considering selling separate subscriptions to its HBO app for smartphones and tablets (i.e. subscriptions for those who are not purchasing HBO already via their cable company).  If HBO takes the plunge, I would expect others to follow. ESPN will face pressure to move in a similar direction.   Who moves first?  It will be interesting to watch.