The NFL Draft: Are Teams Getting Better at Selecting Talent?

On Thursday, we will have the NFL Draft in which each team selects college players.   The draft has become a major television event, and an entire industry of analysts, scouts, and analytics gurus has emerged to flood the airwaves with "expert" commentary.  Teams have invested heavily in their scouting departments, and the assessment tools and analytics they use to select players are allegedly far more advanced than they were decades ago.  With that in mind, I decided to analyze the selection of quarterbacks in the first round over the decades.  I chose to analyze quarterbacks since that is the most important position on the field today.   You can see some interesting trends, although the 1990s appear to be a bit of an aberration (fewer stars and more busts than other decades).  Thus, I decided to compare the 1970s and 1980s to the two most recent complete decades (2000s and 2010s).  Here are a few observations:

• Teams are selecting more quarterbacks in the first round now than they did years ago.  We shouldn't be surprised at this fact, given that the passing game is much more important today.   Teams are clearly investing in a position which has much more value and contributes more to winning today than 50 years ago.  In the period from 1970-1989, teams selected 1.9 quarterbacks per year in the first round.  That number rose to 2.8 quarterbacks per year in the period from 2000-2019.  
• Despite the advanced scouting and analytics, and the tremendous investment in talent evaluation today, teams are not any better at identifying stars than they were in the past.  50% of the quarterbacks selected in the first round from 1970-1989 made at least one Pro Bowl.   Did the NFL general managers improve their hit rate in more recent years?  Not one iota.  50% of the quarterbacks picked in the first round from 2000-2019 made the Pro Bowl at least once.  No improvement despite all that work to allegedly improve talent evaluation!  
• How many champions did the teams identify in these years?  From 1970-1989, 8 of the 38 quarterbacks selected in the first round were the starting quarterbacks on Super Bowl championship teams.  That equates to 21% of the players selected.  From 2000-2019, only 5 of the 56 quarterbacks chosen in the first round have won a Super Bowl (just 9%).  Now, that number is lower, in part, because some of these players have many years left in their career.  Others will surely win Super Bowls.  It is also lower because a certain quarterback drafted in the 6th round, who played here in New England, won so many championships since 2000.  Having said that, the fact is that many of the most elite quarterbacks in NFL history win multiple championships. Thus, a small set of quarterbacks end up champions.  Consider that 5 players have won 36% of the Super Bowls ever played (Brady, Bradshaw, Montana, Aikman, and Mahomes).   12 players have won 60% of the Super Bowls ever played! Thus, the chances of selecting a future champion remain very low, despite all the investment in talent evaluation.  

What are the lessons from this analysis?  Can business leaders learn anything from the NFL draft?  First, if a certain type of talent becomes more valuable, don't count on simply improving your ability to identify future stars when recruiting and hiring.   You may need to simply recruit more people, knowing that your hit rate might not improve much despite new analytics tools.  Second, in some businesses, a few truly elite talents can have an unusually large impact on organizational success.  Yes, we like to emphasize that business is a team sport, much like football.  Yet, there is no way we can simply ignore that 60% of the championships in this sport have been won by 12 quarterbacks over nearly 6 decades.   Of course, they had tremendous talent around them, and great coaching, but still the impact of these individuals at this most important position is quite extraordinary.  Third, beware of the hype around various talent evaluation tools.  Yes, analytics can be helpful, as can other new tools for evaluating talent.  However, we should be skeptical of those who claim that these new tools and methods can dramatically improve our ability to identify top talent.  Beware the hype! 

Immediate Regret: Why Did I Take This Job?

Joann S. Lublin recently wrote a Wall Street Journal column titled, "What to Do When That Shiny New Job Isn't the Right Fit." Actually, the article mostly focuses on why and how people end up in that difficult predicament. Lublin recounts the story of one tech executive who discovered soon after landing a new job that it would not be the opportunity that he anticipated. Here's an excerpt from Lublin's column:

Technology industry veteran Puneet Goel says he wishes he had done greater due diligence a few years ago before taking charge of product management at a midsize tech company He never reached out to his immediate predecessor who no longer worked there. He says the firm’s CEO and founder asked Mr. Goel to draw up a road map for a more competitive version of its software—and promised him autonomy to devise product strategy. But once Mr. Goel joined, the company chief promised potential customers product capabilities that didn’t exist and weren’t part of his new road map.

“He wanted to do what I thought was my job,’’ Mr. Goel explains. “I just couldn’t be successful in that way.’’ According to Mr. Goel, the CEO defended his approach by telling him, “‘This is the way I have always done it and this is how we are going to do things here.’’’ Concluding “there are no good options here,’’ Mr. Goel resigned after seven months. He’s now a product manager for Google. an Alphabet Inc. unit.

Many reasons exist for this type of regret after landing a new job.  The example above identifies a common problem for new hires - the lack of expected and promised autonomy.  Leaders often do not want to let go, and though they might promise a new hire a degree of autonomy during the recruiting process, they simply cannot avoid the desire to micromanage.   Naturally, some good due diligence will help in this case, but you have to be a bit skeptical of the promises made to you.  You have to learn about the decision-making style of those for whom you will work.   Don't be foolish and believe people when they tell you that they are suddenly going to change their spots.  A candidate might hear, "I've managed this function tightly in the past, but I'm ready to provide the new manager much more autonomy."  Be careful!  It's highly unlikely that someone with decades of micromanagement in his or her past will suddenly shift leadership style.  

Attracting Talent: What is Your Employer Brand Strategy?

Matt Handford, the SVP of People for Hootsuite, has written a good article for HR Morning about how to attract and retain talented employees in a tight labor market.  He focuses on your "employer brand" strategy.   Handford explains: 

It should go without saying that in order to develop a strategic and effective brand persona, there needs to be a plan behind it. First off, it’s critical to understand that a brand is not the perks or salary associated with working at your company. While perks like dog-friendly offices, free beer, extra vacation and ping pong are elements of creating a positive workplace it does not, and should not, define you as a brand.

Take a critical look at your current brand and define what you want to be known for; when a potential employee thinks of your company, what is the ideal perception you want to create? By thinking from that perspective, you can work backwards and develop steps to increase your brand’s strategic positioning until you are attracting the type of talent that aligns with your vision. Ultimately you want to capitalize on what makes your brand unique, and build from there.

Handford is right on the money.  The key question is:  How do you build such an effective employer brand strategy?   I would argue that it begins with an in-depth examination of your current competitive position in the labor market.  Clearly, you need to speak with your employees.  What does the brand mean to them?  More importantly, however, you must spend time with two other groups of people:  those who you hope to recruit (perhaps college students, for instance), and those who have rejected you.  The latter group is especially important.  You need to speak with those who have either connected with your firm in some way, but ultimately did not choose employment with your company, or those who have chosen not to engage with you at all.   What's driving them away?  Answering that fundamental question is the first step in building an effective employer brand strategy.  

Attracting the Best College Talent

Sanjeev Agrawal, CEO and co-founder of Collegefeed, has written a terrific article for Harvard Business Review regarding the recruiting of top college talent.  Agrawal surveyed 15,000 millennials as part of a research project on this topic.  60% of the respondents were still in college, while the remainder had graduated recently.  The two charts below highlight some of the key findings:

Note several conclusions that might surprise you.  First, cultural fit matters more to millennials than compensation or company mission.  In today's Wall Street Journal, we read about the extraordinary lengths to which companies are going so as to convey the meaning and purpose of the work to millennials.  Yet, this finding says that culture matters even more than mission.  

Second, students want to understand the career opportunities available to them down the road.  How can they grow and develop over time?  What is the potential path ahead?  Where might they be in 3-5 years?   

Third, on campus efforts clearly matter as companies try to recruit top notch talent.  However, word-of-mouth through friends matters the most, and on-line efforts (job boards and social media) are crucial elements to the recruitment process.   Campus activities and outreach are important, but you have to go beyond the usual information sessions and job fairs to be effective.  

Here at Bryant, the most successful employers certainly conduct info sessions and appear at the career fair.  However, they have found many more ways to connect with students through course projects, networking events, and ways in which they connect our alumni who work there with current students.  They also use social media effectively to attract talented students and inform them about the opportunities at their companies.