Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Don't Overestimate Your Powers of Prediction


This week is the NFL Draft. Here's my analysis of 15 years of data on 1st round picks at QB. Conclusion: It's very hard to predict success. True in other fields too. Lessons for us all: don't overestimate powers to predict; don't misattribute forecasting success/failure based on few data points.

No comments: