Showing posts with label bankruptcy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bankruptcy. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 01, 2018

The Death Spiral at Struggling Restaurants

Source: Wikimedia
I see it time and again.  A restaurant begins to face declining revenues for competitive reasons.  Perhaps fast casual restaurants begin to take share, as Panera and others have done.  Perhaps dietary trends cause a shift in consumer preferences.   As the restaurant grapples with declining sales, it makes two moves to try to reverse its fortunes.  First, it broadens the menu, adding a variety of new dishes.  This move often backfires for two reasons.  The new menu items blur the firm's distinctive positioning in the marketplace.  What precisely is this restaurant all about, and what does it specialize in these days?  Broadening the menu also adds a signficant amount of complexity to the operation.   Speed and quality of service suffers.  As the menu expansion fails to generate strong revenue growth, the restaurant makes its second big move. It cuts costs, particularly with regard to staff.  Of course, speed and quality of service declines even further as a result of the cost cutting.  The death spiral intensifies.   

We have seen this death spiral transpire at Bertucci's, a pizza restaurant based here in the Northeastern United States.   Over the course of the past two years, I have seen the menu continue to expand.  Service has suffered.  As service declined, people stopped going to the restaurant.  Cost cutting affected the quality of the experience.  Several weeks ago, the company filed for bankruptcy.  It's unfortunate, as the company once offered a terrific family dining experience.  

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Sears Acknowledges Possibility of Bankruptcy

Many of us have been predicting the demise of Sears for years.  The writing has been on the wall now for quite some time - falling sales, declining customer satisfaction, and many store closings.  Fortune reported this week that Sears is admitting (finally) that bankruptcy is a possibility. Phil Wahba of Fortune writes:

Sears Holdings has recognized for the first time that many people think the retailer is not long for this world.  In its annual report released on Tuesday, the retailer, which owns Sears and Kmart, said that its years-long sales declines, "indicate substantial doubt exists related to the Company's ability to continue as a going concern." In other words, many think Sears will go under.

Amazingly, Sears has lost nearly $10 billion in the last six years.  How long can they continue to sustain such losses?  Could they be headed to liquidation, not simply a restructuring under Chapter 11? Some think that may be the case.  For me, Sears represents what Harvard Business School Professor Jay Lorsch once described as a "gradual crisis."  Lorsch argued that firms struggle mightily when a threat emerges gradually and unfolds over lengthy periods of time.  They can find themselves rationalizing the threat and avoiding the hard truths.  No single event causes them to shake things up and shift direction in a major way.  By the time they begin to truly confront the threat, it's too late. They find themselves far behind the times, or simply unable to transform the organization that is so set in its ways.  

Monday, February 17, 2014

Exploring GM's Decline: Trust vs. Legal Contracts

US Dept. of Commerce Chief Economist Susan Helper and HBS Professor Rebecca Henderson have written a new working paper examining the decline of General Motors.  They review many of the traditional explanations for the firm's demise, and they try to dig deeper to understand why GM failed to change sooner and more effectively in response to external threats.  Helper and Henderson base their explanation on the concept of "relational contracting" as explained here:

Here we make the case that GM struggled for so long because Toyota’s practices were rooted in the widespread deployment of effective relational contracts agreements based on subjective measures of performance that could neither be fully specified beforehand or verified after the fact and that were thus enforced by the shadow of the future and that GM’s history, organizational structure and managerial practices made it very difficult to maintain these kinds of agreements either within the firm or between the firm and its suppliers.

To step back, the scholars first argue that it was very difficult for GM to understand precisely what were the secrets to Toyota's remarkable success.   Strategy scholars refer to this barrier to imitation as "causal ambiguity."  In other words, the precise drivers of competitive advantage are not well understood by those outside the firm.  In hindsight, of course, we can explain Toyota's success with relative ease. At the time, though, the details of how the Toyota Production System worked, and how it could be imitated, were very difficult to ascertain.   Observation of the system at work, perhaps by touring the factories at Toyota, would do you no good.  Much deeper research was required.  

Beyond that, the scholars argue that emulating Toyota, even after an understanding had developed, was very challenging.  Here they base their argument on the relational contracts concept.  They describe this problem both with regard to how GM related to its employees, as well as to its suppliers. Here's an excerpt from the working paper, focusing on the workers in GM's factories:

It was, for example, very difficult to specify under exactly what circumstances a worker should pull the andon cord, or what behaviors constituted being an effective team member. Shutting down the line for a popular model could cost $10,000 in lost profits per minute (Helper 2011), so management setting up this system needed to be confident that a worker deciding to pull the andon cord would have both the knowledge and the incentive to exercise sophisticated judgment. Conversely, workers would only pull the cord if were confident that an appropriate relational contract wasin place (Gibbons and Henderson 2013). Similarly MacDuffie’s(1997) detailed description of the practices underlying shop-floor problem solving in the industry suggests that successful process quality improvement depended on processes that allowed for the inclusion of multiple perspectives on any single problem, the use of problem categories that were “fuzzy,” and the development of a common language for discussing problems. It seems implausible that employees could be motivated to participate in these kinds of activities through the use of formal contracts that specified in advance every kind of quality problem and its appropriate response.

Why did GM have a hard time building relational contracts?  Helper and Henderson offer several reasons.   In my view, the most compelling explanation is that GM lacked the credibility to work in this very different manner with both the employee unions and the external suppliers.  The lack of trust precluded working in this manner.  Toyota management, on other hand, had developed a deep reservoir of trust from which it could work much more flexibly with workers and suppliers.  Put simply, there are two ways to make a relationship work: trust vs. traditional legal contracts.  GM relied on the latter, but emulating Toyota required the former.  It could not make the switch.

Friday, April 26, 2013

Predicting Bankruptcy

Maureen F. McNichols of Stanford Business School and several co-authors have conducted a fascinating study regarding corporate bankruptcies.  They have examined the usefulness of financial statement analysis as a tool for predicting bankruptcy.  They analyzed data from 1962-2002 for thousands of publicly traded companies.  They found that, over time, financial statement analysis (traditional ratio analysis and the like) became less useful as a means of predicting corporate bankruptcies.   Note that the analysis was still quite useful, just not as effective at predicting bankruptcy as it was back in the early to mid-1960s.  Why might that be the case?  The scholars offer several suggestions.  First, companies restate earnings more frequently today than they did in the 1960s.  That would suggest a higher frequency of earnings manipulation of earnings today.  Second, many tech companies spend a significant portion of sales on research and development.  Those investments do not make it onto the balance sheet in the way that capital investments in property, plant, and equipment do.   As a result, ratios become less useful in predicting bankruptcy.  Finally, more firms have negative income today than in the early 1960s.  When firms lose money in a particular year, it becomes much harder to predict what will happen to them in the following years.   Yet, losses in a particular year don't necessarily mean a bankruptcy is in the future. 

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

American Airlines Files Chapter 11

Perhaps we should not be surprised that American Airlines' parent company has filed for bankruptcy protection.  American remained the last of the legacy U.S. carriers not to have filed Chapter 11.  All others had done so at one point or another.  As a result, the other legacy carriers had been able to use Chapter 11 to restructure their balance sheet and modify their labor contracts significantly.  American remained at a disadvantage because it had not been able to reduce labor costs and debt obligations as substantially as its rivals.  To some extent, Chapter 11 offers the opportunity to level the playing field.  It may seem strange to suggest that a firm may be compelled to file Chapter 11 in part because all its rivals have filed previously.   Yet, that dynamic does exist in this industry.  One should not come to the conclusion, however, that such a domino effect always exists.  Clearly, Ford has managed to be very competitive, despite the fact that it was the only one of the Big Three not to engage in a government-aided bankruptcy restructuring. 

Friday, September 30, 2011

Friendlys headed for bankruptcy

News reports this morning indicate Friendly's restaurants may be headed for Chapter 11. If you have been to one of their locations lately, you know they often exhibit very slow service. Moreover, some locations clearly need a makeover. They have clearly lost share to places such as Panera and Chipotle, as well as other restaurants at which there is table service. Here's a suggestion for survival: why not exit the restaurant business and focus on ice cream? The brand stands for ice cream. They could shift to small locations, reduce fixed costs substantially, and do what they do best.